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When will U.S. tech workers return to the office?

Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, many companies are requiring software engineers, finance workers, and others who can plausibly work from home to do so. Such policies are often implied by "quarantine" or "shelter-in-place" orders such as those in New York or California. However, businesses also have their internal policies which may encourage or require working from home even past the end of state-level orders. This seems especially true for the tech industry. As of 2020-05-15, approximately 65% of tech workers are still working from home.

When will U.S. tech workers return to the office?

Resolution will be based on data from Netskope, a company that "manages cloud service security for tech companies". This data shows a substantial increase in a "user dispersion" metric (a proxy for remote work) from ~30% to ~65% during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • When Netskope publishes an update showing that user dispersion decreased to <40% for a period of 7 days, this question will resolve as the last day of those 7 days.
  • Updates can be found at the original blog post or the Netskope blog, or any other place where Netskope officially publishes user dispersion data.
  • If Netskope stops publishing data, this question resolves as ambiguous. Specifically, if, at any time, Netskope has not published an update in 6 months and the median CDF gives >90% that the question has already resolved, this question resolves as ambiguous.
  • If at the end of the resolution period, the question has not resolved as positive or ambiguous (for example, if workers continue to work from home even after the pandemic is over), the question resolves as >May 2024.

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