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How many Americans will be on dialysis in 2021?

There may be a connection between COVID-19 and an increased risk of kidney damage. This is based on early reports which indicate that up to 30% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in China and New York have developed moderate or severe kidney injury.

Dialysis is a "procedure that is a substitute for many of the normal functions of the kidneys" that is used for patients with kidney damage. According to the United States Renal Data System 2019 annual report, in 2017 there were ~521,000 Americans on dialysis.

This question asks: how many Americans will be on dialysis in 2021?

Resolution will be based on figures provided by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) for 2021.

There is a companion question on comorbidities here: What will be the U.S. age-adjusted stroke death rate in 2021?

Edit on 19 June 2020: changed the source for resolution from the CDC's Chronic Disease Initiative to the United States Renal Data System. The number of Americans on dialysis is now calculated from "Table 8: Trends in annual number of ESRD prevalent cases, crude and standardized ESRD prevalence, and annual percentage changes, in the US population, 1980-2017" of the the annual reports of the USRDS.

For this calculation, the percentages of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis are summed and multiplied by the total number ESRD cases that year. For example, in 2017 there were a total of 746,557 ESRD patients. 62.7% of patients used hemodialysis and 7.1% used peritoneal dialysis for a total of 69.8% on dialysis. 69.8% of 746,557 ESRD patients gives us a figure of ~521,000 patients on dialysis in 2017.

Previous resolution language below

According to the Chronic Kidney Disease Initiative of the CDC, in 2016 there were 726,000 Americans on dialysis. Resolution will be based on figures provided by the CDC for 2021, which will most likely be made available in 2024.


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