Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How many EU countries will (re)-introduce mandatory social distancing measures between July and the end of 2020?
All 27 EU member countries have introduced social distancing measures of varying stringencies due to COVID-19. Most EU member countries are now in the process of lifting restrictions.
As of 2020-06-05, there has been no significant uptick in cases in EU member countries, but concern remains that a second wave may occur — especially later in the year.
This questions asks: Between 2020-07-01 and 2020-12-31 (inclusive), how many EU countries will re-introduce or introduce first-time social distancing measures?
Any law or rule that is in place before July, and remains in place throughout 2020, does not count — unless it gets lifted at some point and introduced again.
Pertinent laws/rules need not be enforced to count toward resolution.
Social distancing measures that count toward resolution include at least one of the following:
1) Mandatory school closures in areas covering at least half the country's population
2) Closing all restaurants (takeout can still be allowed)
3) Restrictions on internal movement
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.