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Question

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How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

Context

Governments across the world are now reopening businesses and loosening lockdown policies put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. In the United States, all 50 states have announced plans for various levels of reopening. But experts and pundits disagree on how sustainable such reopenings are, and in what shape the economy will react or recover.

Apple’s Mobility Trends dataset shares changes in the number of requests for Apple Maps directions on a daily basis, indexed to 13-01-2020. The data is updated daily and identifies trends for driving, walking, and transit for various cities, countries and regions across the world.

Question

What will the Apple Mobility Trends report as the mean level of transit activity in San Francisco - Bay Area for the week of 26-07-2020 through 01-08-2020 (inclusive)?

Resolution

  • Mean of the values reported by the dataset, also linked above, from 26-07-2020 through 01-08-2020 (inclusive).
  • For San Francisco - Bay Area, not San Francisco county.
  • Example: For the San Francisco Bay Area during the week of 17-05-2020 to 23-05-2020, the values for transit activity were

    • 17-05: 20.40
    • 18-05: 24.10
    • 19-05: 19.87
    • 20-05: 23.30
    • 21-05: 20.82
    • 22:05: 24.93
    • 23-05: 20.00
  • So the mean over this time would be 21.92

  • Please download the dataset and predict the number provided there. The chart visualized demonstrates a different number (% difference) that is not what the question asks.
  • This spreadsheet confirms the two locations asked in this question series and their data up to 30-05-2020.

All questions in this series

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