Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How much money will the federal government spend in millions on student loans in the 2020-2021 school year?
Many students rely on federal aid in order to attend and pay for higher education. For this question, federal aid implies all loans and grants, as well as tax benefits and work-study agreements. According to the College Board's report on Total Student Aid in the 2018-2019 year, the total amount of aid supplied was $151,720 million dollars (measured nominally in 2018-19 dollars). Across the last decade, from the 2008-2009 school year at the beginning of the great recession, total federal aid has increased 8% from $140,759 in 2008-09 (measured in 2018-19 dollars and adjusted for inflation).
This question asks: How much money will the federal government spend in millions on student loans in the 2020-2021 school year?
This question will be measured in terms of nominal dollars in the 2020-21 year. This question will resolve ambiguously if either data is not released by the resolution date, or the government fails to continue giving federal aid to students seeking higher education. This question is part of the Higher Education Series.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.