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What percentage of recent college graduates will be unemployed in the first and second quarters of 2021?
As described by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, recent college graduates are the age group between 22 and 27 with a bachelor's degree or higher. In December of 2019, the unemployment rates for recent graduates was 3.9% following a peak of 6.9% in March of 2010 during the great recession. The first and second quarters keep their general descriptions between 1 January and 30 June.
This questions asks: What percentage of recent college graduates will be unemployed in the first and second quarters of 2021?
This question will resolve ambiguously if there is no update on quarterly data by November 1. This question is part of the Higher Education Series.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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