predicting accurate forecasts modeling definitive wisdom assembling definitive futures mapping accurate predictions composing calibrated understanding mapping the future exploring predictive forecasts computing intelligent understanding calculating probable insights assembling quantitative understanding formulating accurate forecasts predicting definitive estimations generating critical predictions composing definitive wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many cases of end-stage renal disease will there be in the U.S. in 2021?

There may be a connection between COVID-19 and an increased risk of kidney damage. This is based on early reports which indicate that up to 30% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in China and New York have developed moderate or severe kidney injury.

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is the final stage of chronic kidney disease and is characterized by the kidneys functioning below 10 percent of their normal ability. Treatment options for this stage include hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and kidney transplant.

According to the United States Renal Data System's 2019 annual report, in 2017 there were 746,557 Americans with ESRD. This information is presented in "Table 8: Trends in annual number of ESRD prevalent cases, crude and standardized ESRD prevalence, and annual percentage changes, in the US population, 1980-2017" on page 28 of the report.

This question asks: How many cases of end-stage renal disease will there be in the U.S. in 2021?

Resolution will be based on figures provided by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) for 2021.

There is a companion question on comorbidities here: What will be the U.S. age-adjusted stroke death rate in 2021?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.