aggregating definitive forecasts crowdsourcing critical understanding forecasting probable forecasts modeling accurate forecasts mapping intelligent predictions mapping the future mapping precise insights delivering predictive understanding computing critical futures formulating probable estimations mapping precise estimations computing contingent estimations delivering precise understanding composing contingent futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What percentage of Macy’s furloughed employees will return to work by August 1?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.


Macy’s was struggling before the coronavirus pandemic: in early February, the company announced 2000 layoffs and the permanent closure of 125 stores. In mid-March, in response to the outbreak, it temporarily closed all Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury store locations. At the end of March, the company announced it would furlough most of its 125,000 employees.

Then at the end of April Macy’s released a presentation detailing its reopening plans, reported on by the New York Times:

The company aims to reopen all of its 775 stores, including Bloomingdale’s, Bluemercury and its major flagships in Manhattan, in the next six to eight weeks. … The reopenings are expected to start on Monday, with 68 stores in Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Macy’s will reopen 50 more locations on May 11.

450 stores reopened on June 9th, prompting a jump in share price as customers returned faster than anticipated.


What percentage of Macy’s furloughed employees will return to work by August 1?


This question will resolve according to the information about its workforce that Macy's shares in its quarterly earnings call, as reported by credible media sources.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.