mapping intelligent wisdom aggregating quantitative insights aggregating contingent contingencies predicting contingent futures modeling predictive understanding mapping the future formulating precise predictions mapping quantitative wisdom aggregating contingent wisdom crowdsourcing accurate insights mapping probable predictions delivering precise contingencies exploring precise forecasts formulating quantitative wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?

Cross-posted on Metaculus and Metaculus.

On 9 July 2020, the South China Morning Post reported that an ‘Unknown pneumonia’ deadlier than coronavirus was sweeping through Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan itself has denied this report, and Michael Ryan of the WHO has suggested that the pneumonia cases could well just been cause by Covid-19.

This question asks:

Will a pathogen which is not SARS-CoV-2 be identified as having caused hundreds of excess cases of pneumonia in Kazakhstan in the months of June & July 2020?

This question will resolve positive if, by the date of resolution:

  • A pathogen other than SARS-CoV-2 is identified by credible media reports as having caused more than 200 cases of pneumonia in Kazakhstan. Wording referring to “the majority of the excess cases”, or “the excess cases” is sufficient.

  • This pathogen has not historically been a cause of pneumonia during these months in Kazakhstan.

Otherwise, the question resolves negative.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.