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Will there be another major naturally-originated pandemic by 2030?
A previous Metaculus question asked about the chance of a major naturally-originated pandemic occuring before 2026. With the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, it seems increasingly likely to resolve positive. Although, as of the time of question writing, the world is very much still in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, there are already worries about the next.
This question asks:
Will there be "naturally spawned" pandemic leading to at least 50M reported infections or at least 5M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2029, which is caused by a pathogen other than SARS-COV-2?
Infection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source.
If estimates of infections are used for resolution, estimates from at least two credible sources should put >95% probability of infections being above the threshold.
If not entirely clear, we will assume "naturally spawned" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2030.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.