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Will there be another major naturally-originated pandemic by 2030?

A previous Metaculus question asked about the chance of a major naturally-originated pandemic occuring before 2026. With the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, it seems increasingly likely to resolve positive. Although, as of the time of question writing, the world is very much still in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, there are already worries about the next.

This question asks:

Will there be "naturally spawned" pandemic leading to at least 50M reported infections or at least 5M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2029, which is caused by a pathogen other than SARS-COV-2?

  • Infection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source.

  • If estimates of infections are used for resolution, estimates from at least two credible sources should put >95% probability of infections being above the threshold.

  • If not entirely clear, we will assume "naturally spawned" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2030.


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