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Will the WHO declare a H1N1 influenza pandemic before the end of 2030?

Both the 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic and the 2009 influenza pandemic were caused by strains of the H1N1 influenza virus. Will we have another such pandemic in the next decade?

Will the WHO declare an influenza virus pandemic of the H1N1 strain between 27 July 2020 and 31 December 2030?

If the organization currently known as the World Health Organization (WHO) exists:

  • and declares a global influenza pandemic before the question resolution date with a virus that is a strain of H1N1, this question resolves positively.

  • and does not declare a global pandemic before the question resolution date, this question resolves negatively.

If the WHO no longer exists, then the institution most generally seen as the WHO's successor for designating pandemics (as decided by Metaculus administrators) will substitute for the "WHO" in prior paragraphs.

If no such successor exists, this question resolves ambiguously.

If the WHO or its successor retired the use of the word "pandemic" before either positive resolution or the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.