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Severity of UK second wave.


The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave.

Although the UK moved to a three tier system of restrictions, there seems to be little sign of the deathrate slowing down, and the metaculus community assigned only a 16% probability to the deathrate reaching 200 deaths/day as early as it did.

During the first wave, daily deaths peaked at just over 900 deaths/day. This question aims to measure when the second wave will, be at least half as deadly as the first.

This question therefore asks:

Will the death rate in the UK's second wave reach 450 deaths/day?

This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve as the first date after the question opens on which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported recorded over the 7-day period immediately preceding that date exceed 3150. The question will retroactively close 7 days before this point. An example is in the fine-print.

If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.

If the first 7-day period containing more than 3150 deaths runs from 2020/11/01 to 2020/11/07, the question resolves as 2020/11/07 and retroactively closes on 2020/11/01.

If no 7-day period occurs before 2020/12/31, this question resolves as >2020/12/31.

Data updates meaning that more than 1500 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).

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