Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Severity of UK second wave.

Question

The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave.

Although the UK moved to a three tier system of restrictions, there seems to be little sign of the deathrate slowing down, and the metaculus community assigned only a 16% probability to the deathrate reaching 200 deaths/day as early as it did.

During the first wave, daily deaths peaked at just over 900 deaths/day. This question aims to measure when the second wave will, be at least half as deadly as the first.

This question therefore asks:

Will the death rate in the UK's second wave reach 450 deaths/day?

This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve as the first date after the question opens on which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported recorded over the 7-day period immediately preceding that date exceed 3150. The question will retroactively close 7 days before this point. An example is in the fine-print.

If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.

If the first 7-day period containing more than 3150 deaths runs from 2020/11/01 to 2020/11/07, the question resolves as 2020/11/07 and retroactively closes on 2020/11/01.

If no 7-day period occurs before 2020/12/31, this question resolves as >2020/12/31.

Data updates meaning that more than 1500 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.