computing critical insights calculating contingent insights composing accurate futures mapping quantitative contingencies modeling calibrated predictions mapping the future aggregating definitive futures composing contingent wisdom mapping critical contingencies generating definitive contingencies calculating precise contingencies crowdsourcing quantitative contingencies generating probable understanding mapping calibrated forecasts

Profile

username dan
formerly known as
member since September 2, 2018
bio
{{err}}
Save Changes
Metaculus supporter – {{pctrl.supporterName()}}
supporter since {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}

Change your username

Cost: {{user.username_change_cost}} tachyons

You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.

Brand new users can change their names for free. After a few days it will cost tachyons.

Stats

level (Admin)
predictions 283 predictions on 99 questions (50 resolved)
comments 163 comments on 58 questions
rank 41st
authorship 38 active questions
achievements