Metaculus

Predicting Pandemics

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Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round COVID-19 Lightning Round Contest

Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1704, 6378, 12044, 13716, and 13841 new deaths reported each week in the US. When do you expect the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday) to fall below 5,000?

When do you expect the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday) to first fall below 5,000?

Assign probabilities to the following dates, according to when you expect to see the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths from Sunday through Saturday) first fall below 5,000.

  1. On Saturday May 2 (from Sunday April 26th) or May 9 (from Sunday May 3rd)
  2. On Saturday May 16 or May 23
  3. On Saturday May 30 or June 6
  4. On Saturday June 13 or June 20
  5. On or after June 20