Metaculus

Predicting Pandemics

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Lockdown Series: When will life return to normal-ish?

COVID-19 Lockdown Contest

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented restrictions on travel and movement, including many of the countries that are home to our predictors.

In this question series, we are looking to predict when these restrictions curfews and lockdowns will be eased or removed. So, if you're interested in helping us figure out when our lives will return to business-as-usual, please do participate.

In addition, the results of these predictions will be used by our collaborators at COVID-19 Forecasting Project at the University of Oxford, who will feed these predictions into their publicly available simulations.

And if the social value you're providing wasn't enough, we're also running the Lockdown Tournament on our 12 lockdown-themed questions, with awards:

  • $250 for first prize
  • $200 for second prize
  • $150 for third prize

The contest is for predicting when will the current lockdowns will be lifted or reduced in intensity, in each of the following locations:

Note: in all regions, a regional-only easing of lockdowns count as a partial lifting of the lockdown.

We have also created overview page for these lockdown-related predictions.

Categories:
Health & Pandemics